View chart-friendly PDF: Rutgers-Eagleton Poll – NJHCQI Abortion – 05.08.24 – FINAL EMBARGOED_FINAL_vF
Three-quarters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases; three-quarters are concerned bans would lead to unnecessary health issues.
NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. (May 9, 2024) – As abortion reenters the spotlight on the national election stage, three in 10 New Jerseyans say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their stance on abortion, according to the latest poll in the New Jersey Health Matters series by the New Jersey Health Care Quality Institute in partnership with the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.
Three-quarters say they are concerned about bans on abortion causing unnecessary health issues, and a large majority say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
When asked to think about how the issue of abortion may influence their vote next year, 28 percent say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion. Another 50 percent say a candidate’s position on abortion is just one of many important factors. Sixteen percent claim abortion isn’t an important factor to their vote at all.
Fifty-eight percent are “very concerned” that bans on abortion would lead to unnecessary health problems among pregnant patients who experience complications, and another 20 percent are “somewhat concerned.” Less than one in five say they are “not too concerned” (11 percent) or “not at all concerned” (6 percent).
Regarding abortion, more generally, 46 percent of New Jerseyans say it should be “legal in all cases” and another 31 percent say, “most cases.” Twelve percent say it should be “illegal in most cases” and 4 percent say it should be “illegal in all cases.”
“New Jerseyans mirror public opinion nationwide when it comes to how abortion will affect their vote, but they are even more concerned than Americans, as a whole, when it comes to the health problems abortion may cause and are more supportive of abortion, in general,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University–New Brunswick. “At a statewide level, we have consistently seen New Jerseyans supportive of reproductive health measures throughout the decades and, more recently, worried about the implications of Roe being overturned and ranking reproductive issues as an important factor in their 2022 midterm vote.”
When it comes to who to vote for in 2024, abortion seems likely to be a factor for many demographic groups, but less than four in 10 of any group say it will be the primary one. Democrats (39 percent) and 18- to 34-year-olds (35 percent) are most likely to say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion. Women are more likely than men to say this (32 percent to 24 percent). The likelihood that abortion is the primary factor to someone’s vote increases with income and education but decreases with age. Republicans, on the other hand, are the most likely of any group to say the issue isn’t an important factor to their vote choice.
Concern that abortion bans might lead to unnecessary health problems among pregnant patients is high across the board: A majority of every demographic is “very concerned” about this, with the exception of Republicans (at 27 percent). While more than half of Republicans say they are at least “somewhat” concerned, they express the least concern of any group, with 23 percent saying they are “not too concerned” and 16 percent “not at all concerned.”
At least four in 10 of every demographic group say abortion should be legal in all cases and a solid majority in each group say it should be legal in all or most. The only exception is Republicans, though more than half of this group believe it should be legal in all (24 percent) or most (31 percent) cases. Democrats and women are the two groups where support for legalization in all cases crosses the 50 percent threshold (62 percent and 52 percent, respectively).
“Our Health Matters poll shows widespread support for abortion in all or most situations,” said Linda Schwimmer, president and CEO of the New Jersey Health Care Quality Institute. “Access to reproductive health care services are a critical part of overall health and wellbeing.”
Results are from a statewide poll of 1,512 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel via web and live calling from March 26 to April 8. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
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Broadcast interviews: Rutgers University–New Brunswick has broadcast-quality television and radio studios available for remote live or taped interviews with Rutgers experts. For more information, contact Jessica Ronan-Frisch at jronan@eagleton.rutgers.edu.
ABOUT RUTGERS UNIVERSITY–NEW BRUNSWICK
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ABOUT THE EAGLETON CENTER FOR PUBLIC INTEREST POLLING
Home of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) was established in 1971 and is the oldest and one of the most respected university-based statewide polling operations in the United States. Now in its 52nd year and with the publication of over 200 polls, ECPIP’s mission is to provide scientifically sound, nonpartisan information about public opinion. To read more about ECPIP and view all of our press releases, published research and data archive, please visit our website: eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu. You can also visit us on Facebook and X (formerly Twitter).
ABOUT THE EAGLETON INSTITUTE OF POLITICS
The Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling is a unit of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University–New Brunswick. The Eagleton Institute studies how American politics and government work and change, analyzes how the democracy might improve and promotes political participation and civic engagement. The Institute explores state and national politics through research, education, and public service, linking the study of politics with its day-to-day practice. To learn more about Eagleton programs and expertise, visit eagleton.rutgers.edu.
ABOUT THE RUTGERS-EAGLETON/SSRS GARDEN STATE PANEL
The Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel is a probability-based panel of New Jersey adults age 18 or older. Members are recruited randomly based on statewide representative ABS (Address Based Sample) design. The ABS sample is drawn from the Delivery Sequence File (DSF) maintained by the U.S. Postal Service. Population coverage of the DSF is in the 98%-99% range. During the recruitment process, full demographic information on panelists is collected. This data is stored securely and used to determine eligibility for specific studies (if needed). The Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel is a multi-mode panel. Internet households participate via web while all non-internet households (including those who have internet but are unwilling to take surveys online) participate via phone. Panelists also have the option of taking surveys in their preferred language (English or Spanish).
About the New Jersey Health Care Quality Institute
The New Jersey Health Care Quality Institute’s (Quality Institute) mission is to improve the safety, quality, and affordability of health care for everyone. Our membership comes from all stakeholders in health care. Together with our 100 plus members, we are working towards a world where all people receive safe, equitable, and affordable health care and live their healthiest lives.
Questions and Tables
The questions covered in this release are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey adults; all percentages are of weighted results. Interpret groups with samples sizes under 100 with extreme caution.
Q2. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?
| Legal in all cases | 46% |
| Legal in most cases | 31% |
| Illegal in most cases | 12% |
| Illegal in all cases | 4% |
| Don’t know | 6% |
| Unweighted N= | 1483 |
| Party ID | Gender | Race or Ethnicity | Age | ||||||||||
| Dem | Ind | Rep | Man | Woman | Wht | Blk | Hisp | Other | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | |
| Legal all | 62% | 42% | 24% | 40% | 52% | 46% | 45% | 47% | 46% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 41% |
| Legal most | 27% | 35% | 31% | 34% | 28% | 32% | 30% | 27% | 32% | 29% | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Illegal most | 5% | 12% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 16% |
| Illegal all | 2% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| DK | 4% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 6% |
| Unwt N= | 595 | 601 | 279 | 727 | 756 | 911 | 139 | 256 | 176 | 382 | 354 | 398 | 345 |
| Income | Region | Education | |||||||||||
| <$50K | $50K-<$100K | $100K-<$150K | $150K+ | Urban | Suburb | Exurban | Phil/
South |
Shore | HS or less | Some college | College grad | Grad work | |
| Legal all | 48% | 44% | 46% | 47% | 45% | 49% | 45% | 42% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 50% | 46% |
| Legal most | 29% | 31% | 31% | 34% | 36% | 30% | 27% | 31% | 32% | 27% | 29% | 33% | 36% |
| Illegal most | 10% | 14% | 18% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 11% |
| Illegal all | 4% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| DK | 10% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 3% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 5% |
| Unwt N= | 391 | 400 | 260 | 319 | 237 | 504 | 178 | 261 | 303 | 352 | 340 | 353 | 437 |
Q3. How concerned are you, if at all, that bans on abortion would lead to unnecessary health problems among pregnant patients who experience complications?
| Very concerned | 58% |
| Somewhat concerned | 20% |
| Not too concerned | 11% |
| Not at all concerned | 6% |
| Don’t know | 5% |
| Unweighted N= | 1482 |
| Party ID | Gender | Race or Ethnicity | Age | ||||||||||
| Dem | Ind | Rep | Man | Woman | Wht | Blk | Hisp | Other | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | |
| Very | 78% | 53% | 27% | 51% | 65% | 57% | 63% | 55% | 61% | 62% | 56% | 55% | 59% |
| Somewhat | 13% | 24% | 28% | 23% | 18% | 22% | 15% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 23% | 24% | 18% |
| Not too | 4% | 12% | 23% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 15% |
| Not at all | 2% | 6% | 16% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 4% |
| DK | 3% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% |
| Unwt N= | 595 | 600 | 279 | 727 | 755 | 911 | 138 | 256 | 176 | 381 | 354 | 398 | 345 |
| Income | Region | Education | |||||||||||
| <$50K | $50K-<$100K | $100K-<$150K | $150K+ | Urban | Suburb | Exurban | Phil/
South |
Shore | HS or less | Some college | College grad | Grad work | |
| Very | 59% | 57% | 56% | 64% | 62% | 58% | 56% | 54% | 61% | 51% | 57% | 64% | 64% |
| Somewhat | 24% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 24% | 20% | 17% | 22% | 19% | 23% | 17% | 22% | 18% |
| Not too | 6% | 13% | 15% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 10% |
| Not at all | 4% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 10% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 5% |
| DK | 7% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 4% |
| Unwt N= | 390 | 400 | 260 | 319 | 237 | 504 | 178 | 261 | 302 | 351 | 340 | 353 | 437 |
Q4. Thinking about how the issue of abortion might affect your vote this year, which comes closer to your view:
| I would only vote for a candidate who shares my views on abortion | 28% |
| A candidate’s position on abortion is just one of many important factors | 50% |
| Abortion is not an important factor in my vote choice | 16% |
| Don’t know | 7% |
| Unweighted N= | 1479 |
| Party ID | Gender | Race or Ethnicity | Age | ||||||||||
| Dem | Ind | Rep | Man | Woman | Wht | Blk | Hisp | Other | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | |
| Share views | 39% | 22% | 18% | 24% | 32% | 30% | 30% | 26% | 20% | 35% | 24% | 26% | 27% |
| One of many | 50% | 50% | 47% | 52% | 47% | 49% | 52% | 46% | 55% | 46% | 52% | 50% | 51% |
| Not impt | 5% | 19% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 12% | 17% | 17% | 18% |
| DK | 5% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 4% |
| Unwt N= | 594 | 601 | 276 | 726 | 753 | 909 | 139 | 254 | 176 | 383 | 351 | 398 | 343 |
|
|
Income | Region | Education | ||||||||||
| <$50K | $50K-<$100K | $100K-<$150K | $150K+ | Urban | Suburb | Exurban | Phil/
South |
Shore | HS or less | Some college | College grad | Grad work | |
| Share views | 27% | 27% | 33% | 29% | 28% | 26% | 30% | 29% | 31% | 26% | 23% | 34% | 31% |
| One of many | 48% | 49% | 50% | 54% | 49% | 53% | 46% | 45% | 49% | 48% | 49% | 53% | 50% |
| Not impt | 14% | 18% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 14% | 19% | 23% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 11% | 13% |
| DK | 10% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 12% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 9% | 3% | 5% |
| Unwt N= | 390 | 398 | 259 | 319 | 236 | 503 | 176 | 261 | 303 | 349 | 340 | 352 |
437 |
Methodology
This Rutgers-Eagleton Poll was conducted from March 26 to April 8, 2024, with a scientifically selected random sample of 1,512 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. Sample came from the Rutgers-Eagleton/Garden State Panel.
The Rutgers-Eagleton/Garden State Panel is a probability-based panel of New Jersey adults age 18 or older. Members are recruited randomly based on statewide representative ABS (Address Based Sample) design. ABS sample is drawn from the Delivery Sequence File (DSF) maintained by the U.S. Postal Service. Population coverage of the DSF is in the 98%-99% range. During the recruitment process, full demographic information on panelists is collected. The Rutgers/SSRS Garden State Panel is a multi-mode panel.
This study employed two recruitment methods: calling with live interviewers (n=1,486) and web recruitment (n=26). Distribution of recruitment method in this sample is:
|
Call |
2% |
| Web | 98% |
The data were weighted to be representative of the residential adult population of New Jersey. The weighting balances sample demographics to target population parameters. The sample is balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education, race/ethnicity and region. Benchmark parameter distributions were derived from 2022 American Community Survey PUMS data.
Base weights were computed to account for sampling probabilities at the time of the initial recruitment and the sampling from the panel for this particular data collection effort.
The final stage of weighting calibrates sample demographics to match target population benchmark distributions. This weighting was accomplished using SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on survey estimates. The use of these weights in statistical analysis ensures that the demographic characteristics of the sample closely approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population.
Post-data collection statistical adjustments require analysis procedures that reflect departures from simple random sampling. We calculate the effects of these design features so that an appropriate adjustment can be incorporated into tests of statistical significance when using these data. The so-called “design effect” or deff represents the loss in statistical efficiency that results from a disproportionate sample design and systematic non-response. [1] The total sample design effect is 1.33.
All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 1,512 New Jersey adults is +/-2.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The design effect[2] is 1.33, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 2.9 percentage points. Thus, if 50 percent of New Jersey adults in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 47.1 and 52.9 percent (50 +/- 2.9) if all New Jersey adults had been interviewed, rather than just a sample.
Sampling error is only one possible source of error in a survey estimate. Sampling error does not consider other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as selection bias, non-response bias, question wording, context effects, or reporting accuracy, which may contribute additional error.
This Rutgers-Eagleton Poll was fielded by SSRS through the Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP). Jessica Roman assisted with analysis and preparation of this report. The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Full questionnaires are available on request and can also be accessed through our archives at eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu. For more information, please contact poll@eagleton.rutgers.edu.
Weighted Demographics
1,512 New Jersey Adults 18+
Overall Margin of Error = +/- 2.9 percentage points
Please note: Totals may equal slightly more or less than 100% due to rounding.
| deff | MOE | deff | MOE | |||||
| Man | 48% | 1.35 | +/- 4.2% | White | 55% | 1.36 | +/- 3.7% | |
| Woman | 52% | 1.31 | +/- 4.0% | Black | 12% | 1.23 | +/- 9.1% | |
| Hispanic | 20% | 1.27 | +/- 6.8% | |||||
| 18-34 | 27% | 1.28 | +/- 5.6% | Other | 14% | 1.24 | +/- 8.2% | |
| 35-49 | 25% | 1.28 | +/- 5.8% | |||||
| 50-64 | 26% | 1.37 | +/- 5.7% | <50K | 30% | 1.32 | +/- 5.6% | |
| 65+ | 22% | 1.39 | +/- 6.1% | 50K-<100K | 29% | 1.35 | +/- 5.6% | |
| 100K-<150K | 19% | 1.36 | +/- 7.0% | |||||
| Democrat | 39% | 1.35 | +/- 4.6% | 150K+ | 22% | 1.28 | +/- 6.2% | |
| Independent | 42% | 1.31 | +/- 4.5% | |||||
| Republican | 19% | 1.32 | +/- 6.6% | Urban | 17% | 1.27 | +/- 7.1% | |
| Suburb | 35% | 1.34 | +/- 5.0% | |||||
| HS or Less | 34% | 1.18 | +/- 5.6% | Exurban | 13% | 1.29 | +/- 8.2% | |
| Some College | 23% | 1.30 | +/- 6.0% | Phil/South | 18% | 1.33 | +/- 6.9% | |
| College Grad | 19% | 1.32 | +/- 5.9% | Shore | 17% | 1.34 | +/- 6.5% | |
| Grad Work | 24% | 1.30 | +/- 5.3% |
[1] The composite design effect for a sample of size n, with each case having a weight, w, is computed as deff=(n∑▒w^2 )⁄(∑▒w)^2 .
[2] Post-data collection statistical adjustments require analysis procedures that reflect departures from simple random sampling. We calculate the effects of these design features so that an appropriate adjustment can be incorporated into tests of statistical significance when using these data. The so-called “design effect” or deff represents the loss in statistical efficiency that results from a disproportionate sample design and systematic non-response.